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When faced with something new, it is within all of us to come to an instant opinion, to make an impetuous decision. We do it all the time. Sometimes subsequent events show that opinion or decision to be correct, but on other occasions we change our mind once we have more information, the information we really needed to make the decision in the first place. In the practice of medicine the traditional diagnostic model involves the gathering of relevant information from the patient, constructing an initial opinion or hypothesis, and then testing and perhaps changing it in the light of further information gathered from investigations or the opinions of others. To short-circuit that process risks